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Place your bets on the EU referendum result!

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Comments

  • federicafederica Seeker of the clear blue sky... Its better to remain silent and be thought a fool, than to speak out and remove all doubt Moderator

    It's going to take us at least 2 years to finalise this decision. In that time, we will be scrutinising the Laws established one by one, and considering those which have overwhelming benefits and those which don't. so it's very possible that many laws implemented while we had complete membership will remain, if they are and have been deemed to be of major benefit....

  • federicafederica Seeker of the clear blue sky... Its better to remain silent and be thought a fool, than to speak out and remove all doubt Moderator

    @Swaroop said:
    UK should revive the commonwealth.

    That's not up to us, it's up to the member states. Some chose independence, and got it. If it requires reviving, they would have to decide it, not the UK.

  • federicafederica Seeker of the clear blue sky... Its better to remain silent and be thought a fool, than to speak out and remove all doubt Moderator

    @SpinyNorman said:
    Spiny: 55% remain
    Rohit: 62% leave
    Steve_B: 53% leave
    Kerome: 54% remain
    Lobster: 75% remain
    Walker: 53% remain
    Karasti: 58% remain
    Shoshin: 55% remain
    David: 54/68% remain
    Boru: 52% leave
    Genkaku: 62.174 remain

    So the 3.5 got it right, and the other 8 got it wrong.... Interesting how that worked out...

  • DairyLamaDairyLama Veteran Veteran

    @Swaroop said:> UK should revive the commonwealth.

    Quite right too, the Queen and English gentlemen should rule them again. :p

    lobster
  • DairyLamaDairyLama Veteran Veteran

    @federica said:> It's going to take us at least 2 years to finalise this decision. In that time, we will be scrutinising the Laws established one by one, and considering those which have overwhelming benefits and those which don't. so it's very possible that many laws implemented while we had complete membership will remain, if they are and have been deemed to be of major benefit....

    It will be interesting to see what develops.

  • KundoKundo Sydney, Australia Veteran

    @SpinyNorman said:

    @Swaroop said:> UK should revive the commonwealth.

    Quite right too, the Queen and English gentlemen should rule them again. :p

    They'd do a hell of a lot better than our pathetic mob here (Australia)

    Swaroop
  • lobsterlobster Veteran

    Apart from betting, which is against the precepts, nothing has changed. Existence is still dukkha and a political institution will eventually be replaced, probably by a European Emperor, Mullah, AI, Trump franchise ... or something equally useless to peoples well being.

    As usual I am very hopeful that people will look increasingly inward for well being, rather than ice cream, politicians, bank balances or uncommon wealthies ...

    OM MANI PEME OUT
    as we ex-Europeans say o:)

    SwaroopRuddyDuck9
  • DairyLamaDairyLama Veteran Veteran

    Cameron has resigned as PM, my guess is the next PM will be Euro-Trump Boris Johnson.
    Nicola Sturgeon saying she will push for Scotland to remain in the EU, and also for another Scottish independence referendum. Martin McGuinness hinting at a future NI referendum on a united Ireland. Also Wales will lose a lot of EU income, very unlikely Westminster will make up the difference, so they will get quite dissatisfied too.
    Things could get very interesting!

  • DairyLamaDairyLama Veteran Veteran

    Maybe the good Queen Sturgeon will invade England to rescue us from the evil King Longshanks Boris and his beer-swilling henchman Farage. :p

    Swaroop
  • BoruBoru Explorer

    @zenff said:
    People like Marine Le Pen en Geert Wilders (the far right in Europe) are celebrating now what they hope will be the beginning of the end of the EU.
    “It is our turn now” I heard already.
    Anti-European nationalism, xenophobia, and hate won. And I think the far right will seek to catch momentum from this “inspiring” win from “the will of the people”.

    We, the rest of Europe, we need to find a way to stop demagogues form playing the card of people’s ugly and racist gut feelings. Sensible politicians have to regain some of their credibility if they want to be a match for the populist hate mongers.

    That's not true. The concerns of the people of Europe regarding the economy and unlimited immigration are being ignored by elitist politicians who are telling the electorate what's good for them. The rise of the far right is a concern but can easily be countered by good governance by elected politicians.

    People aren't voting for hate, they are voting for self preservation because they don't want to bail out countries with huge debt, compete for jobs that are few, send their kids to overcrowded schools, or be put on increasingly longer waiting lists to be seen by doctors, etc, etc.

    The second bit highlighted is why the remain lost the referendum. Calling anyone who has concerns about what direction their country is taking a racist.

    rohitKundo
  • BoruBoru Explorer

    @zenff said:
    If you want A,B and C for your country and get it, you may have to find an uninhabited island and claim it for yourself alone.
    Living together is a pain.

    But are the people in Germany sharing the pain the Greeks are suffering? Pain seems to be a one way street in the EU.

  • DairyLamaDairyLama Veteran Veteran

    @Boru said:Calling anyone who has concerns about what direction their country is taking a racist.

    I agree, and it's often the poor areas which have the highest levels of immigration, putting pressure on services which are already stressed. The political class in Westminster mostly live in posh areas and IMO simply don't get it.

    Boru
  • BoruBoru Explorer
    edited June 2016

    @SpinyNorman said:
    It's 52% leave, so Boru wins - well done, a spot-on prediction! I confess that I was a bit sad at the result and ate the prize to cheer myself up. :p

    Ha! And here was me looking forward to receiving a soggy and funny smelling parcel in the post ;)

    lobsterJeroenrohitSwaroop
  • WalkerWalker Veteran Veteran

    @SpinyNorman said:
    Cameron has resigned as PM, my guess is the next PM will be Euro-Trump Boris Johnson.
    Nicola Sturgeon saying she will push for Scotland to remain in the EU, and also for another Scottish independence referendum. Martin McGuinness hinting at a future NI referendum on a united Ireland. Also Wales will lose a lot of EU income, very unlikely Westminster will make up the difference, so they will get quite dissatisfied too.
    Things could get very interesting!

    Yes, and things could get interesting on the continent too. How will the people and governments in the rest of the EU react to all this?

  • BoruBoru Explorer

    @SpinyNorman said:

    @Boru said:Calling anyone who has concerns about what direction their country is taking a racist.

    I agree, and it's often the poor areas which have the highest levels of immigration, putting pressure on services which are already stressed. The political class in Westminster mostly live in posh areas and IMO simply don't get it.

    These type of areas usually have low voter turnout but before I went too bed last night I seen on the news that a working class area in Sunderland had a very high turnout.

  • Fascinating. And the value of the pound has tanked of course as various betters on the currency markets either won or lost a fortune. Now comes the endless "What does this mean" analysis from the experts.

    Well, nothing has changed yet so all those tourists are going to have a wonderful time seeing England on the cheap. On the other hand, the cost of your pint and a pack of fags is going to go way up.

    Seems in the long view, this is just another step in the rising tide of nationalism. This world is too crowded and getting more so each year. I think it's mostly about our tribal instincts to protect our land and borders from strangers. Sometimes the strangers are our next door neighbors and been here as long as us, but if our minds still label them as outsiders, we are primed to go to war.

    I don't know much about the nuts and bolts of the EU, but I know nationalism is on the rise everywhere and I bet the other countries like France are going to start making noises about leaving, too. You think?

    person
  • BoruBoru Explorer

    @SpinyNorman said:
    Cameron has resigned as PM, my guess is the next PM will be Euro-Trump Boris Johnson.
    Nicola Sturgeon saying she will push for Scotland to remain in the EU, and also for another Scottish independence referendum. Martin McGuinness hinting at a future NI referendum on a united Ireland. Also Wales will lose a lot of EU income, very unlikely Westminster will make up the difference, so they will get quite dissatisfied too.
    Things could get very interesting!

    All my map books will be outdated if Scotland and Northern Ireland leave the UK. The agriculture sector will lose the subsidies too, which is a big deal in NI.

    Things are going to get very interesting as we are due another global recession I believe.

  • DairyLamaDairyLama Veteran Veteran

    @Walker said:> Yes, and things could get interesting on the continent too. How will the people and governments in the rest of the EU react to all this?

    It could stir up some discontent, but basically I think the EU will carry on in much the same way.
    Meanwhile Gallipoli the Turkish gull has said he is worried that people won't be buying so many kebabs if there is a recession. He might have to subsidise his income with soggy chips, but is worried those will make him fat.

    Kundo
  • BoruBoru Explorer

    @Cinorjer said:
    Fascinating. And the value of the pound has tanked of course as various betters on the currency markets either won or lost a fortune. Now comes the endless "What does this mean" analysis from the experts.

    Well, nothing has changed yet so all those tourists are going to have a wonderful time seeing England on the cheap. On the other hand, the cost of your pint and a pack of fags is going to go way up.

    Seems in the long view, this is just another step in the rising tide of nationalism. This world is too crowded and getting more so each year. I think it's mostly about our tribal instincts to protect our land and borders from strangers. Sometimes the strangers are our next door neighbors and been here as long as us, but if our minds still label them as outsiders, we are primed to go to war.

    I don't know much about the nuts and bolts of the EU, but I know nationalism is on the rise everywhere and I bet the other countries like France are going to start making noises about leaving, too. You think?

    The pound is at it's lowest since the 80's. German 10 year blond yields have slipped back into negative territory. Also the stock market is only doing a little better in the UK than rest of Europe so maybe investors believe the huge debt in the Euro zone will be causing problems soon and the UK won't be there to help with a bail out?

    Banks with bad debt problems are losing a lot of their share prices in London and the EU. Barclays in London are the biggest losers.
    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5dd775bc-39cc-11e6-9a05-82a9b15a8ee7.html

    I think France, the Netherlands, Denmark and Italy have also become anti-EU so they might want to leave. People in Europe I find to be quite liberal and that is why the left has been so popular for a long time. People are voting for the right as a protest vote I believe.

    rohit
  • federicafederica Seeker of the clear blue sky... Its better to remain silent and be thought a fool, than to speak out and remove all doubt Moderator

    @Boru said:

    @SpinyNorman said:
    It's 52% leave, so Boru wins - well done, a spot-on prediction! I confess that I was a bit sad at the result and ate the prize to cheer myself up. :p

    Ha! And here was me looking forward to receiving a soggy and funny smelling parcel in the post ;)

    (That can still be arranged. I still have half a camembert and a wedge of gorgonzola in my fridge. I'm sure. Somewhere....)

  • rohitrohit Maharrashtra Veteran
    edited June 2016

    @Boru said:

    @Cinorjer said:
    Fascinating. And the value of the pound has tanked of course as various betters on the currency markets either won or lost a fortune. Now comes the endless "What does this mean" analysis from the experts.

    Well, nothing has changed yet so all those tourists are going to have a wonderful time seeing England on the cheap. On the other hand, the cost of your pint and a pack of fags is going to go way up.

    Seems in the long view, this is just another step in the rising tide of nationalism. This world is too crowded and getting more so each year. I think it's mostly about our tribal instincts to protect our land and borders from strangers. Sometimes the strangers are our next door neighbors and been here as long as us, but if our minds still label them as outsiders, we are primed to go to war.

    I don't know much about the nuts and bolts of the EU, but I know nationalism is on the rise everywhere and I bet the other countries like France are going to start making noises about leaving, too. You think?

    The pound is at it's lowest since the 80's. German 10 year blond yields have slipped back into negative territory. Also the stock market is only doing a little better in the UK than rest of Europe so maybe investors believe the huge debt in the Euro zone will be causing problems soon and the UK won't be there to help with a bail out?

    Banks with bad debt problems are losing a lot of their share prices in London and the EU. Barclays in London are the biggest losers.
    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5dd775bc-39cc-11e6-9a05-82a9b15a8ee7.html

    I think France, the Netherlands, Denmark and Italy have also become anti-EU so they might want to leave. People in Europe I find to be quite liberal and that is why the left has been so popular for a long time. People are voting for the right as a protest vote I believe.

    News are coming about Frexit. I guess there were starting countries who established EU were prosperous. And with growing size of EU with additional less prosperous countries would result in all new countries and founding countries of EU with exit polls.

    It's just my observation. I do not wish anything politically. o:)

  • DairyLamaDairyLama Veteran Veteran

    @federica said: (That can still be arranged. I still have half a camembert and a wedge of gorgonzola in my fridge. I'm sure. Somewhere....)

    Gallipoli the Turkish gull is looking for some extra work, he might be willing to fly it over. He'll need to stop off at kebab shops along the way, so it might take a while.

    Kundo
  • karastikarasti Breathing Minnesota Moderator

    My son participates in some university run study/experiment that allows betting on political events. He made $300 on the $50 he put in by betting that they would leave. His only argument was "people who want change are more motivated to vote than those who don't want change, or don't care." In that case, we're screwed with our election, lol.

    I hope the turmoil settles soon. Is the vote entirely binding? As in they literally have no choice but to make this happen even if it takes a long time as @federica said? Or is it like some things here where maybe people voted for it but the higher ups still are the ones that have to make it happen and have the option to chose not to do so? (that happens in our courts with juries sometimes, sometimes they recommend punishment and the judge just says "No, we'll do this instead").

    I admit, it's glad to see something political other than Trump on our front pages this morning, lol. Condolences to those who wished it had gone the other way.

    person
  • BoruBoru Explorer

    @federica said:

    @Boru said:

    @SpinyNorman said:
    It's 52% leave, so Boru wins - well done, a spot-on prediction! I confess that I was a bit sad at the result and ate the prize to cheer myself up. :p

    Ha! And here was me looking forward to receiving a soggy and funny smelling parcel in the post ;)

    (That can still be arranged. I still have half a camembert and a wedge of gorgonzola in my fridge. I'm sure. Somewhere....)

    All food parcels gratefully accepted! ;)

  • BoruBoru Explorer
    edited June 2016

    @karasti said:
    My son participates in some university run study/experiment that allows betting on political events. He made $300 on the $50 he put in by betting that they would leave. His only argument was "people who want change are more motivated to vote than those who don't want change, or don't care." In that case, we're screwed with our election, lol.

    I hope the turmoil settles soon. Is the vote entirely binding? As in they literally have no choice but to make this happen even if it takes a long time as @federica said? Or is it like some things here where maybe people voted for it but the higher ups still are the ones that have to make it happen and have the option to chose not to do so? (that happens in our courts with juries sometimes, sometimes they recommend punishment and the judge just says "No, we'll do this instead").

    I admit, it's glad to see something political other than Trump on our front pages this morning, lol. Condolences to those who wished it had gone the other way.

    It is not legally binding. Here is a news article explaining why:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/23/eu-referendum-legally-binding-brexit-lisbon-cameron-sovereign-parliament

    "The simple answer to the question as to whether the EU referendum is legally binding is “no”. In theory, in the event of a vote to leave the EU, David Cameron, who opposes Brexit, could decide to ignore the will of the people and put the question to MPs banking on a majority deciding to remain.

    This is because parliament is sovereign and referendums are generally not binding in the UK."

    Its also worth noting @karasti that David Cameron has announced that he will be resigning but he has not invoked article 50 of the Lisbon treaty. He said he will leave that to his successor in October.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/24/britain-votes-to-leave-the-eu-what-happens-now-that-brexit-is-a/

  • karastikarasti Breathing Minnesota Moderator

    Thank you for the links @Boru, I appreciate it!
    Does the fact that the vote was so close have an impact do you think?
    It seems like a long time to leave things in limbo. It seems like if they intend to go through with it, that it would be in the best interests of settling agreements and markets and everything else to move forward more quickly? But perhaps not. Uncertainty isn't good for anyone.

  • federicafederica Seeker of the clear blue sky... Its better to remain silent and be thought a fool, than to speak out and remove all doubt Moderator

    No, the closeness is not a factor. The referendum held in Wales as to whether the Welsh should become Independent from England was much closer, and a second referendum wasn't even considered. A second referendum has been put forward as a suggestion, but it is extremely unlikely one will take place.

    And while the decision is not binding, for it to not be implemented will spell real trouble and create a massive schism in the current 'Union', given that other Member States have citizens clamouring for a similar referendum for themselves. To not fulfil the wishes of the voters would be incredibly stupid and totally inadvisable.

    Kundo
  • BoruBoru Explorer

    @karasti said:
    Thank you for the links @Boru, I appreciate it!
    Does the fact that the vote was so close have an impact do you think?
    It seems like a long time to leave things in limbo. It seems like if they intend to go through with it, that it would be in the best interests of settling agreements and markets and everything else to move forward more quickly? But perhaps not. Uncertainty isn't good for anyone.

    No problem friend!

    The impact from the vote is that England and Wales have voted out and Scotland and Northern Ireland have voted to remain.

    Scotland voted 62% to remain. So the Scottish National party are already asking for another Scotland independence referendum so that they can leave the UK and join the EU.

    In Northern Ireland people also voted to remain, 55.7%, so there are noises being made about united Ireland referendums that the good Friday agreement can facilitate. Not only does no one want a physical border in Ireland, it would be nearly impossible to have border controls. The motorway from Dublin to Belfast was made without borders in mind. Plus farming is important in the north and they would like to hold onto their EU farming subsidies too.

    The two year rule is there because the EU has written a lot of laws and regulations over the years and anything the UK parliament wants to keep will have to be written into British law. Plus trade agreements will have to be re-written also. But on the plus side of trade agreements is that the UK don't need approval from the EU on who they trade with.

    rohit
  • karastikarasti Breathing Minnesota Moderator

    @federica Yes, that makes sense. Thank you! Never goes well to go against the will of the people, for sure.

    So now that Cameron did resign, there is no choice but to wait for his replacement in the fall to invoke article 50?

  • federicafederica Seeker of the clear blue sky... Its better to remain silent and be thought a fool, than to speak out and remove all doubt Moderator

    That's surprising, that he chose to pass the implementation to his successor, but then again, maybe not; He didn't want out in the first place... I also think immediate implementation would actually create quite a few problems, so "soflee soflee" I think is probably wise. And there are 2 contenders for his Post, so we shall have to wait and see how things are handled. Of course, it must be remembered that this decision is not only one for this country, but one that will have repercussions of upheaval to others in the Union. I think those countries which will be strongly affected by this decision, are girding their loins and awaiting the shoe to drop...

  • ShoshinShoshin No one in particular Nowhere Special Veteran

    Place your bets on the EU referendum result!

    Um.....How would the Buddha have voted ???

  • DavidDavid A human residing in Hamilton, Ontario, Canada. Ancestral territory of the Erie, Haudenosaunee, Huron-Wendat, Mississauga and Neutral First Nations Veteran

    Oh boy.

    Just hours after the vote the 2nd most popular google search in the UK was "What is the EU?"

    Another popular search after the fact was "What happens if we leave the EU?"

    Do the people even know what the will of the people is?

    Shoshin
  • karastikarasti Breathing Minnesota Moderator

    I imagine the "what happens if we leave" can maybe be at least partially explained by the pro-remain people trying to figure out what's ahead. A lot of people who vote stick with their position without ever looking at the other position until they have to worry about it.

  • DairyLamaDairyLama Veteran Veteran

    @Shoshin said: Um.....How would the Buddha have voted ???

    The Buddha was an English gentleman and would have voted leave. :p

    rohit
  • DairyLamaDairyLama Veteran Veteran

    It looks like there will be another Scottish independence referendum sooner or later. Nicola Sturgeon has been watching "Braveheart" again. :p

    DavidkarastifedericaKundo
  • DavidDavid A human residing in Hamilton, Ontario, Canada. Ancestral territory of the Erie, Haudenosaunee, Huron-Wendat, Mississauga and Neutral First Nations Veteran

    I wish we would get to the point where we understand it's all really the same place after all. I think borders should be established to cater to preference of living and that's it.

    One love, one heart, one dollar.

    It's all the same dollar really or we wouldn't be able to convert money. It's just a scam to keep people down so a few can over indulge.

    IchLiebte
  • Steve_BSteve_B Veteran

    But that's not the mood lately. We're in a phase where the mood is to be uncooperative, turn our backs, be spitefull and negative.

  • DairyLamaDairyLama Veteran Veteran

    People are now calling for the referendum to be repeated....please, no, I can't take it any more! :p
    http://metro.co.uk/2016/06/25/petition-for-second-eu-referendum-hits-1-million-signatures-5965795/

    Jeroenmmo
  • DavidDavid A human residing in Hamilton, Ontario, Canada. Ancestral territory of the Erie, Haudenosaunee, Huron-Wendat, Mississauga and Neutral First Nations Veteran

    @Steve_B said:
    But that's not the mood lately. We're in a phase where the mood is to be uncooperative, turn our backs, be spitefull and negative.

    It's weird how humans can go against the flow like that.

  • JeroenJeroen Luminous beings are we, not this crude matter Netherlands Veteran

    @SpinyNorman said:
    People are now calling for the referendum to be repeated....please, no, I can't take it any more! :p
    http://metro.co.uk/2016/06/25/petition-for-second-eu-referendum-hits-1-million-signatures-5965795/

    This is very funny...

  • DairyLamaDairyLama Veteran Veteran

    Perhaps we will have a referendum about having another referendum... :p

    mmo
  • karastikarasti Breathing Minnesota Moderator

    Sometimes I wish we had national referendums...and sometimes I'm glad we don't, lol.

  • federicafederica Seeker of the clear blue sky... Its better to remain silent and be thought a fool, than to speak out and remove all doubt Moderator

    @David said:
    I wish we would get to the point where we understand it's all really the same place after all. I think borders should be established to cater to preference of living and that's it.

    One love, one heart, one dollar.

    It's all the same dollar really or we wouldn't be able to convert money. It's just a scam to keep people down so a few can over indulge.

    I therefore suggest that you remove all fencing, gates, barriers or impediments to all and sundry and allow whoever wants to do it, to come onto your property, set up their tents, build a more solid place of habitation, and use your garden entirely as they see fit, do what they want to it, when they want and assume right to roam on it.

    Then tell me how long that lasts amicably....

    silverDairyLamaKundommo
  • silversilver In the beginning there was nothing, and then it exploded. USA, Left coast. Veteran

    There's that saying about good fences make good neighbors?

    Kundommo
  • federicafederica Seeker of the clear blue sky... Its better to remain silent and be thought a fool, than to speak out and remove all doubt Moderator

    My point

    The sentence "I wish we would get to the point where we understand it's all really the same place after all. I think borders should be established to cater to preference of living and that's it."

    Is self-contradicting. Borders between countries are precisely there to cater to preference of living.
    The fact that crossing one border takes you into a place where people hold different customs and speak different languages is clear evidence of preference of living'.

    We also need borders for reasons of security.

    "I prefer to live here, and here is my border. You prefer to come in and bomb us to kingdom come, but that has nothing to do with either your preference of living, or mine. Pass, friend."

    I don't think so.

    DairyLamaKundommo
  • JeroenJeroen Luminous beings are we, not this crude matter Netherlands Veteran
    edited June 2016

    @SpinyNorman said:
    Perhaps we will have a referendum about having another referendum... :p

    It loses a certain something since we are long past the Cold War... Still great satirical song text though on the public's perception of the political process

  • ShoshinShoshin No one in particular Nowhere Special Veteran
    edited June 2016

    "The Dalai Lama has distanced himself from a poster circulated by Brexit campaigners that suggested the Tibetan Buddhist spiritual leader was in favour of the UK leaving the EU."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/03/dalai-lama-distances-himself-from-brexit-poster

  • ShoshinShoshin No one in particular Nowhere Special Veteran

    @David said:
    What I find amusing though is that a country that went and colonized half the world now bitches about immigration.

    Perhaps it's collective karma coming back to bite the UK in the bum :wink:

    David
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