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Heatwave and climate change
Jeroen
Luminous beings are we, not this crude matterNetherlands Veteran
Is it also so hot and dry where you are? We’ve had a solid two months of almost nothing but sunshine, last week we recorded three consecutive days over 30 degrees C which makes it an official heatwave, temperatures went as high as 37 degrees and we had the warmest night ever recorded here as well. Today it’s like the first day we’ve had some rain and cooling off.
And they are saying that this kind of weather will become more usual in the summer, that whereas before we used to have this once every twenty years now we can expect it much more frequently.
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UK: we have had incredible weather, and yup, we've reached the "it's a heatwave, here comes a hosepipe ban" which pisses us off, because we're an island, and we pay rates for our water.... we got to 37.3 degrees yesterday, but also experienced thunderstorms. with fairly good downpours, but nothing like the amount we need to re-fill the reservoirs...
People here still talk about the '76 heatwave. Solid sunshine, from 13th May until 3rd September. No let-up, not even the occasional thundery shower... we ended up having emergency standpipes in the street, rivers dried up, even the Mighty Thames was in places, reduced to a trickle... and its source, (or more accurately, the 7 springs which unite to form the source) was as dry as a bone for at least 5 miles further on....
Today, the temperature is still good, but remarkably, has dropped by a good FIFTEEN degrees since yesterday, which proved that wind and water combine to move energy in amazing ways (Wind = Feng, Shui = water....)
However, over the week, the temperatures are set to rise again...
I'm sorry to challenge your point, but these sorts of examples aren't a good way to think about climate change or to make the point that it is occurring.
Some of my work is outside so I'm relatively aware of what time of year it becomes too cold to do certain types of work. Two years ago we had an unusual warm stretch where it was a good 10-20 degrees F above normal. I heard more than one climate change lament. Last year was a cooler than average summer and a normal fall, it got too cold to work outside probably a week earlier than expected with a big drop off in temperature. Just this Thursday we tied a record here for the lowest high temperature ever for the day.
I'm not saying these mean climate change isn't happening, it is. I'm saying that weather and climate are not the same and using weather as an argument for climate change means deniers can also do the same. Maybe this analogy is too American but weather is like what an individual baseball player's batting average is for one game, climate is the whole league's batting average for the whole season.
I imagine you know all this already, I just care about scientific literacy. Maybe it is sacred to me?
I have no doubt you are correct, just that the average temperature shifting makes sense as a result of climate change. My understanding of climate change science is not much deeper than the average man in the street.
But I’m very grateful for the cooler day today, we had some very blustery winds and rains this morning and temperatures stayed around 21 degrees C most of the day which is pleasantly normal.
Fair enough, I think it's important not to fall into the way of thinking where you believe you have the correct conclusions and end up falling into confirmation bias where you notice the facts that support your conclusion and pay little mind to the facts that contradict it. When making scientific claims its important to take in all the data or you risk thinking along the lines of a creationist. Because facts, what we know, is always changing.
It’s interesting though, on TV they were showing some global temperature colour maps of the northern hemisphere summer of the last few decades in the news, and we’ve had some really hot years the last few years. If you compare that to things like the famous ‘hockey stick’ graph, it really does seem like we may finally be getting to the business end of climate change.
Human caused climate change is real, the studies overwhelmingly show that its happening. I guess I'm not really talking about climate change, I'm talking about how to think about science when what we know changes.
Long term trends and broad comparisons with the past like those graphs are much better ways to talk about climate change than a hot stretch of weather, or an unseasonable snowfall.
Maybe I'm just a science pedant and I'm telling you its "their", not "they're".
I applaud science pedantry, there are too many people not sufficiently educated on the scientific method today. My background is in engineering, and all through school I had a lot of science subjects with some excellent teachers.
In Ireland we had a couple of hot and dry weeks at the beginning of July, but are now back to the usual summer rain with occasional dry spells! Not sure what the global implications of climate change are likely to be but considering that one hefty volcano blowing its top can plunge half the globe into a nuclear winter can people really hold a candle to mother nature?
I walked to the Thames and back yesterday, in the rain. It was Sunday, early and wet. I used two quieter routes, very pleasant compared to the recent heat.
RAIN as a practice ...
https://www.mindful.org/tara-brach-rain-mindfulness-practice/
Loved walking in London on Sundays, and the Thames acts as a magnet always. Also a great time for visiting Tate modern. No school kids!
Nope, cold and wet here. Climate change? Pffff...
What's even more baffling to me than how its cold where you are when its hot here, but how do you guys not just fall off the planet living on the underside and all? I've seen a globe up close and it defies the laws of physics.
We've worked out a way around it.
At birth we're all given velcro boots and they just covered everything in velcro.
We lose someone occasionally who forgets to put their boots on but I figure if they're that stupid we're probably better off without them......
Smart.
OMG, I'm dyin' here....!
Interesting article in The Guardian today...
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/31/climate-change-denial-oil-companies-fossil-fuels
Great article @kerome, yikes! I take it all back. The Guardian too. Hoist on my own petard! (whatever the hell that is) problem with people is that apocalyptic scenarios seem to have a nihilistic 'what the hell' effect on us, generally speaking. Ibsen got it right in his 'enemy of the people',
Shakespeare's phrase, "hoist with his own petard," is an idiom that means "to be harmed by one's own plan to harm someone else" or "to fall into one's own trap", implying that one could be lifted (blown) upward by one's own bomb, or in other words, be foiled by one's own plan.
Rather like, "We'll cut 'them' off at the pass!" Only to find there's been a rock-fall and the pass is blocked, so you should have carried on pursuing 'them' the way they went....
We may soon be looking into engineering some volcanic blowouts...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jul/31/chinas-most-populous-area-could-be-uninhabitable-by-end-of-century
Wile E Cayote take note!
Seattle had a heat wave that lasted nearly a week, temps 30C and a little above, and more of that is expected soon, though they got a nice break for a bit. Although it's normal for Seattle to have hot weather in the 2nd half of the summer like this (a fact that a lot of people seem to forget), it's rare for the temps to hit 30 or slightly above, and to stay there for more than two days or so. Also, those hot spells have been happening out-of-season, in late spring, as well.
Furthermore, summers are drier than they used to be, and the dry season now has extended back into late spring. Similar to what you Brits are saying about summer drought. I remember back in the 70's, there used to be warm, sunny showers in June, in Seattle. But those early summer showers stopped by the late 70's, and haven't been seen since.There was water rationing 6 summers out of 10, between 1979 and 1989. There was drought in California that decade, too. A harbinger of things to come, we can now say in hindsight.
So what we're seeing, is a general trend over decades, towards warmer and drier. Fall and winter are expected to be more rainy, as the summer heat sucks increased moisture from the ocean and from Puget Sound, up into the atmosphere, to come down as torrential rain.There will be less snow, but more rain.
Well, while I understand that daily fluctuations does not equal climate change, I'm a few miles from the Canadian border and we are looking at 108 degree (42C) today and 106 tomorrow (41C).
On a Dutch news site I saw an article which said “these kind of summers would be considered normal in 2060”, and along with it various speculations that the Earth may become a hothouse planet with large deserts which would be partially uninhabitable.
But what I found particularly interesting is how this year the summer heat seems to have been felt worldwide in many disparate parts of the northern hemisphere, and also the middle latitudes. If you look at heat maps overlaid on the world map it’s been an exceptional summer.
Although right now we’re having a couple of cool days at 19C.
33 degrees C today. 34 forecast for tomorrow. Might just hit the beach....
Where are you, yagr, if you don't mind my asking? NW? Upper Mid-West? NE? I guess Calgary gets pretty hot in the summers... Anywhere near ocean would be a bit cooler.
I'm beginning to feel like Ireland is in some kind of chill globe, its quite cool here, 14 to 18 C most days, autumnal even! I think Irish folk are feeling left out, they do so love drama
We are having Spring weather here, 16 to 20 C (today around 18/19 C )..I was quite hot out walking this afternoon... officially it's still winter
Weird & whacky weather 
Spokane, WA
It hasn't been an especially hot summer here, from what I remember there has only been one stretch of a couple days or so where the temperature reached a dangerous level. Despite that apparently it has been the hottest summer on record here because the temp at night hasn't cooled off as much as normal for some reason.
I'm not by any means arguing with anyone or trying to insult. Also I do acknowledge that our alpha status at top of the food chain has us overpopulating and doing plenty of damage to this earth and its surrounding atmosphere. But, I'm sure everyone can also agree that the earth keeps changing itself with or without us. It has been through the poles melting and floods before. Not to forget it has had ice ages also and the continents continue to move closer and farther away from each other. Collisions occur. Mountains are formed and the cycle continues. Sorry. I guess I'm just different. But I feel the earth would continue to change regardless if we are here or not. Even if we can prove that we sped up the process wouldn't we just be so to speak delaying the inevitable if we weren't? Please don't think I condone destroying our earth.
I think you are right @Fearless0124 the Earth will carry on, but I think it’s clear that humans are responsible for the current extinction event. Life on Earth will not be the same in 200 years, after all the overfishing we are doing and reducing the wilderness areas.
But I also think that even if climate change goes with some massive loss of human life, say comparable to the Black Death which cost the lives of 30% of the human population of Europe, there will be survivors who will carry on, and who may not have learnt the lessons of living in harmony with nature.
There is an interesting initiative called Half Earth which is an effort towards establishing half the earth as wildlife preserve, called for by the biologist E. O. Wilson.
True @Kerome. I also believe even with a brink of extinction event that the surving few would continue down the path of destroying the earths habbit. We as a population get tunnel vision so to speak and choose the path of least resistance Which in turn means the vast majority may talk a big game but at the end of the day still drive home a gas guzzling sports car and don't recycle our plastics. But this Half Earth you speak of would be ultimate bliss. I am a huge fan of letting nature getting back to doing what it does best and for us to stop meddling up the process of it's own evolution
When people stop loving money over life, that will happen.
While huge wealth = huge power, nothing will change for the better.
Climate change is normal.
Unfortunately, the changes to this planet are not all climactic.
And they exponentially worsen at the rate of population growth and human interference with Nature.
... "letting nature getting back to doing what it does best " is a sadly-simplistic and naive pipe-dream, because we idiotically believe that somehow, even if she does her own thing, we can harness that to our advantage and profit from it.
Someone, somewhere is quietly poised or paid to exploit it.
There are enough hugely powerful and wealthy organisations hell-bent on bending her to their will.
And with enough propaganda, they convince everyone of how right they are.
Sssh!!! That's supposed to be a secret!
It was chilly here today = 13C
My ankle's been more sore than usual
Via Naomi Klein:
Wouldn't this be akin to a peeing section in a pool? i.e. You can pee in this half but not the other... or a smoking and non-smoking section in a restaurant divided by...air.
The earth has been through major change before. WE, however, haven't. Our way of life isn't able to adapt, without massive displacement, food shortages, and subsequent chaos. And the change that's happening now is proceeding faster than scientists expected.
IDK about the rest of y'all, but it's been a very scary few weeks in the NW, with smoky air so bad, that doctors have been urging their vulnerable patients to leave the region until the fires stop. There are so many forest fires going on in British Columbia and eastern WA (hello, yagr!), that ASH was raining from the sky in Western WA (Seattle, etc.). It was like a nuclear winter, people! I was planning to move back there, before this happened. Now I'm FREAKED OUT! Fires earlier in CA caused FIRE TORNADOS! That is some scary, freaky stuff. And this is just the beginning !!