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Place your bets on the EU referendum result!
Comments
Spiny: 55% remain
Rohit: 62% leave
Steve_B: 53% leave
Kerome: 54% remain
Lobster: 75% remain
Walker: 53% remain
Karasti: 58% remain
Shoshin: 55% remain
David: 54/68% remain
Boru: 52% leave
Genkaku: 62.174 remain
I'd be interested in what more of the locals here think are the best arguments for and against. Of course most of what I can read is typical "whatever might be best for the US" BS. I've read some from the BBC and other sources, I can see good points on both sides. But there is a part of me that wants to actively discourage the creation of more borders, more separation, more distinction. I can understand being tired of carrying everyone else, but I also think when you are the big dog, it's your job to carry everyone else. So i feel conflicted on the moral/ethical part of it in that way. Which of course is only part of a large and complex story.
So for those of you who live there, what do you see as the pros and cons of each side? There do seem to be a lot of scare tactics being used from the current government on the "remain" side. Are their strategies effective? Are their arguments actually good arguments?
Speaking of history, there is a long list of "pro EU" referendums were scare tactics were used. Vote for this or there will be economic Armageddon!
In Ireland the Nice and Lisbon treaties were rejected but the people were told to vote again because it wasn't the answer the EU wanted. Economic mayhem was going to happen if the treaties were not passed we were told, but they never said it was going to happen with a yes vote too. The IMF came into the country two years after the Lisbon treaty! So what happened to all the jobs promised by the people pushing Nice and Lisbon?
Will peoples jobs be safe in the UK if they remain? Or will they be replaced by cheap labour?
The majority of people who want the UK to remain in the EU - are actually young, I believe, because actually - they've never known anything else.
For those of us who remember that funnily enough, the UK survived very well outside of the EU, and actually joined a group of countries called "The Common Market" when it was of a manageable size, there is an awful lot to be said for distancing ourselves from a sizeable organisation which, the bigger it gets, the more complex it becomes, and the greater the convolution in managing it.
So what have I learnt, exactly?
1) We have a government who is happy to spend £9 million of tax payers' money on a totally one-sided pitch to remain: so much for a balanced viewpoint.
2) The claims made by both sides have ranged from speculative to outright lies. My favourite being the notorious apocalypse algorithm used by the Treasury, "proving" that Brexit would cost every household £4,300. Project Fear was started in earnest.
3) That wages have remained largely unaffected by the influx of migrant workers. The good news being that the only group affected is the poorest of our workforce, but hey why should we care? (I am incidentally, in that group....)
4) The only vague consensus on both sides is that the uncontrolled mass migration over the last decade has been an epic disaster. The strain on housing, health and education in some areas is at breaking point. The projected increase in population over the next decade or so is expected to result in 75 million people living on our shores. We are now the most densely populated Country in the EU, and as an illustration, we currently have the same population as France but in a Country two and a half times smaller. You can't fit a quart into a pint-pot...
5) The NHS will grind to a halt without more EU migrants. Well...It is true that 4.5% of its workforce is from EU countries. The figure is higher for professionally qualified clinical staff, with 6% of nurses and health visitors and nearly 9% of doctors coming from the EU. What "statistics" don't address is why UK trained staff are leaving in droves? Perhaps this should be sorted out rather than placing so much of a reliance on EU migrants. Furthermore if a points-based system were put in to operation, arguably most of the qualified clinical staff and doctors would still be eligible to work here.
The EU is awash with disaster stories, from Greece (with the bailout) to Spain with 45% youth unemployment. All over Europe there are problems and if you think Greece (who are the 44th biggest economy) was worrying, take a look at Italy. The Italian economy is far larger. Italy has the 8th largest economy in the world, and their government debt to GDP ratio is currently sitting at about 132 percent. They are facing a potential financial meltdown which would affect all the member states and would make the bailout for Greece look like small change.
I've listened to the arguments from both sides and considered them carefully, but for me it really comes down the issue of identity, I want to be European as well as British, part of something larger, outward rather than inward looking.
And here is the nightmare scenario!
This could go off-topic I'm afraid.
Europe is hardly a dictatorship. It is notoriously powerless, and that could be at the core of its problems. The European Commission and the European Parliament are both powerless because the European nations are unwilling to give up real power to European Institutions. So every crucial decision has to be forged in endless meetings of government leaders.
We complain about weak European decision-making but we bitterly resist giving power to European institutions.
Gah that image is horrifying.
I'm not saying they are the same by any means but it's the only comparison I can make, so here it goes, lol
Obviously, living in the US I also live in a state, which happens to be Minnesota. I've always had the identity of both though they can be quite different to consider separately. I can understand the desire to be part of something larger, but perhaps then you just end up with a larger entity that is still looking inwards? That's certainly what we do. When I consider what it might be like (logical, financial, economical, constitutional issues not withstanding, I mean in a perfect world) to live just in MN and not be part of the US or Canada, and it actually feels quite nice. Minnesota is small, contained, local. It's full of people who think like me who take care of each other. We're a fairly liberal, democratic and progressive state as a whole. I hate being lumped together with some parts of the rest of our country, namely the entire south east and most of the south as a whole. Trying to use the values I grew up with and the ones I've since picked up and apply them to the lives of people in Mississippi, largely doesn't work. Vice versa as well. I don't identify whatsoever with the cultures and lives of those in the large urban areas on the coasts. Sometimes, it feels too big. There are way too many different types of people, cultures, ways of living, to consider and attempt to bring together in a way that one entity can govern for ALL of those different needs. We continue to diversify and people continue to cluster as they always have, with those who are like them. Trying to pretend ALL of those segments can come together to agree on running things a particular way is getting increasingly difficult and I am finding it impossible to believe it will ever get better and only continue to get worse.
From my perspective it would be better to regionalize the US and see if that stops some of the warring among the citizens from different areas that have vastly different ways of life, beliefs, laws, and so on. So it's interesting to me, @SpinyNorman, that you desire to stay (or increase) the ability to belong to a larger entity while I increasingly see less value in it. But on the flip side, borders only cause more conflict and I'm equally unsure that making more, smaller borders is good for anyone, either.
It's partly reflecting on European history, my parents generation fought in WW2 for example. It's also worth bearing in mind that Britain is comprised of four nations, each with their own identity. So somebody living in Wales might say that they are Welsh, British and European. Judging by the result of the Scottish independence referendum, a lot of people living in Scotland would leave out the "British"! The Scottish nationalists have said they would try to stay in the EU if Britain as a whole voted to leave, which would presumably involve them gaining independence too. There is also a question mark on the border between Eire and Northern Ireland in the event of a leave vote, it's been open for decades but that might change, nobody seems to know ( Eire is an EU member ).
Nah, we've got nukes, and you guys could help us invade France like in WW2. In exchange for your help we could give you the Commonwealth - Canada might be handy.
Love as no labels @SpinyNorman
"Change is inevitable...Suffering is optional" ...Whichever way the vote goes....
Sure, expect us to be loyal subjects, then throw us under the bus when it suits your purposes.
-That's too funny:-) Seriously though, may this all work out well for our brethren in the old country. May mother England fare well...
Hold on, what about the 4NT? I thought life is always suffering? Or dukkha - I know the translation is poor but still, it doesn't look like suffering or unsatisfactoriness is optional.
When one learns to let go and just go with the flow then one will know....life is not all about suffering...When one clings one suffers...That's Dukkha for ya .
suffering is inevitable, experiencing pain from it is optional. Perhaps that is the 4NT way to look at it, lol.
I always try to remember, even if I am super happy a vote goes my way, there are a whole lot of people who are not happy and are feeling the way I would feel if it had gone the other way. Having so close to 50% of people unhappy with results just continues to brew discontent.
But national parliaments are restricted by EU law in what they can do to protect national interests. Angela Merkel makes decisions on behalf of the whole EU without consulting EU members. Jean Claude Juncker President of the European Commission says that Governments listen too much to their people and aren't "good Europeans".
National parliaments are the ones who are powerless. David Cameron got very little from his "deal" with the eu.
@karasti -- I had always heard it as, pain is unavoidable, suffering is optional. Though perhaps it doesn't make much difference.
I really hope Britain vote to leave the EU
@genkaku I certainly might have it backwards! It really works either way I suppose as long as you understand it
Loyal subjects willingly make sacrifices for their Queen.
Gawd, make up your minds, which one am I supposed to have?
Well, people are voting today, we should know the result early Friday morning. It could be quite close!
[sound of Spiny digging our Irish passport, just in case]
You have a passport - ?! Luxury!!! (oh, the irony....)
(Note: many "refugees" come to these shores claiming they are 'European' but have no passports or documentation on them to prove provenance. 'Lost in transit' is now a rubber stamp, not a valid excuse.)
How to dance your way through the ice cream finals ...
You put your right hand in
You take your right hand out
You put your right hand in
And you shake it all about
You do the hokey pokey
And you turn yourself around
That's what it's all about
Dancing advice from the BBC:
Can I put a smiley face instead?
The Electoral Commission says the best way to make sure your vote is counted is to mark an X in a box. But a smiley face or anything which is interpreted by a returning officer as an expression of preference "must not be rejected if the voter's intention is clear", its guidance to Counting Officers says.
lol that's awesome. In my district we use scantron sheets so you have to fill in the bubble exactly right with the correct kind of pencil, or it won't count. Because we actually make it as difficult as possible for you to #1 be able to vote at all and #2 get your vote counted
Technically I could get a US passport too, but, well, no offence to our transatlantic cousins, but, ho hum....
Ironically I do actually have a lot of cousins in the US. This whole identity thing gets quite confusing. I'm Irish-American, I'm British, I'm English, I'm London-Irish, bog-Irish, I'm Suffolk, I'm Army, I'm all sorts of things. I'm also Buddhist, and probably that's been most important, the sense of not having to be anything in particular, a sense of freedom.
@SpinyNorman -- You're Irish-American and the best prize you can come up with in the remain-leave betting pool is bleeding ICE CREAM????!!!!!
Or is it single malt?
That's kind of how I feel over here but almost in reverse. I have Irish and English blood but was born here in Canada.
Canada is a part of America but for some reason the term "American" is reserved for those residing in the United States. I guess it's because the name has no real ring to it and the closest other term seems to be "Statiens" or something.
If we had named the country the United Provinces of America then we could maybe have had a run at it.
-You buy your milk in bags. No offense, but that's "un-American." :-)
Cow mucous? No thanks!
A good almond or cashew milk is good but I've only found them in cartons.
-But if you found it in bags you'd buy it! :-)
bags?!
@silver Milk is sold in plastic bags in parts of Canada. We haven't had milk sold in bags here in Alberta for a long time, since the eighties I think.
Wow, it looks like it's going to be a close result.
BBC just forecast a Leave win.
If remaining votes go the way they have been, @Boru may win!
I iz no longer European? No ice cream?
Maybe we can sell the Queen and do all kind of unexpected things? Time for a quick burst of Rule Britannia ...
Maybe we should invade Scotland ... and Switzerland (bleedin' independents)? More possibilities as they arise ...
Au Revoir, Auf Wiedersehen, Arrivederci, Tot Ziens, Ya Sas, and of course...Hasta la Vista - Baby!
So Boru takes the sweepstakes, the official result was just announced as 52% to leave.
I think the chances are the scots will have another referendum to leave the UK and stay in Europe. I've heard a few rumblings to that effect.
People like Marine Le Pen en Geert Wilders (the far right in Europe) are celebrating now what they hope will be the beginning of the end of the EU.
“It is our turn now” I heard already.
Anti-European nationalism, xenophobia, and hate won. And I think the far right will seek to catch momentum from this “inspiring” win from “the will of the people”.
We, the rest of Europe, we need to find a way to stop demagogues form playing the card of people’s ugly and racist gut feelings. Sensible politicians have to regain some of their credibility if they want to be a match for the populist hate mongers.
I take your point but to be honest, I think the British people just wanted their nation back.
We have increasingly grown fed up with faceless bureaucrats making our minds up for us.
We had grown tired of wanting A, B, C for our country, and having to settle instead for x, y and z.
"We wanted * this * and instead got ~ that ~ But we made our point!!"
Well now, I truly think our point HAS been made.
If you want A,B and C for your country and get it, you may have to find an uninhabited island and claim it for yourself alone.
Living together is a pain.
It's 52% leave, so Boru wins - well done, a spot-on prediction! I confess that I was a bit sad at the result and ate the prize to cheer myself up.
But what now? Boris as PM? Recession?
I think Cameron will resign, and I think Strawberry Whirl Cornish will replace Neapolitan as favourite flavour.
Here's a current evaluation on the immediate (and longer-term) consequences.
Cameron just announced his resignation, but no news yet on ice-cream policy or seagull immigration.
UK should revive the commonwealth.