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Place your bets on the EU referendum result!
DairyLama
Veteran Veteran
As you've probably heard us Brits will be voting on Thursday to decide whether we stay in the European Union.
I am predicting a Remain majority of 55%.
What's your best guess? Give a % figure for Leave or Remain.
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Comments
A large portion of ice-cream for the person who gets closest!
62% of people will favour to leave EU.
53% exit.
I'll be honest, I really think it's way too close to call, but I'm erring on a very minor majority in the 'Brexit' camp. I'm not going to give percentages, because I really, really suck at maths....
54% remain... I just think it makes more sense.
No, honestly, it actually doesn't.
If they do, does that mean they start minting their own money again? Or is it all about being allowed to close their borders to other EU nation refugees?
@Cinorjer, No it's not all about that. Unfortunately, it's a major issue which seems to dominate and overshadow other equally important issues, but no. It is most certainly not 'all about that'. (And hat do you mean about 'minting our own money again'...?)
Well, I don't have an axe to grind, not being a UK citizen - but given location, trade factors, cultural links, shared history, shared interests such as managing electricity supplies, it largely seems to point to being inside as a sensible choice. Especially since being outside wouldn't solve the immigration problems.
But I have to say I haven't followed all the debates around for or against, so have only a shallow understanding of the whole thing. I have heard that the brexit campaign was trying to fight mostly on emotive issues, which I think is very short-sighted.
If you leave the EU don't you also have to use something other than the European Dollar that everyone in the EU uses now? Does that mean you're back to the pound?
I love England and the people and lived there for a few years, and I remember when they did this EU thing, it sounded like a great idea for business and all, but those were good times. I wondered what would happen if the downside to having open borders and binding economies hit. I think we started seeing the downside with the problems in Greece. Greece sees nothing but downside now with no benefits at all, and will for the foreseeable future. At any rate, it's hard for me to wrap my mind around the various elements of the problems we face in the USA, leave alone the complicated issues of Europe.
@Cinorjer, We already use the pound. We don't have the Euro as currency, we never have had.
Only Northern Ireland does that.
Hmmm...I wonder how we coped all those years ago when we weren't in the EU... Japan isn't part of CHina, but seems to be pretty successful in its trading and commerce.... New Zealand isn't joined up with Australia, but does ok...And I believe Canada and the USA are joined at the hip, but do ok as separate states....
And while being outside of the EU may not 'solve the immigration problems' it would make it legal for us to refuse entry to them, without having to listen to the remaining members bleating about fairness and responsibility. The flak Chancellor Merkel is taking form her own citizens for her stance on refugees is telling....
Well there's no doubt that this whole thing is an extremely emotive issue.
However, it may help to listen to this. It's extremely interesting.
('The Spectator' is a British Conservative magazine. Bear in Mind, Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron, is Pro-staying...)
Ah, you kept the pound. Somewhere in a box I still have a handful of English money from my time there. So it's still legal tender. Yep, way too complicated for me to have an informed opinion.
I think you will find that most of those countries are part of free trade areas or partnerships in their local geographic regions, such as NAFTA and APEC. The EU isn't a superstate, it's somewhere halfway between an economic cooperation and something more encompassing. If the UK were to leave, they would have to renegotiate all those treaties as well. It will take time and cost money, and may be less favourable too.
Anyway, wishing you luck whichever way you choose to vote
Thank you, I'll try to find time to listen to it...
I'm not voting. I'm not registered to vote, and haven't been for the past 20+ years. I believe ultimately that everyone concerned is bending the truth to suit their own ends, and that the truth stands somewhere in between.
I think if we leave, there will be problems. But also advantages.
I think if we stay, there will be problems. But also advantages.
Damned/blessed if we do, damned/blessed if we don't.
But to be honest, I'm skipping more into the side of "I hope we leave" rather than "I'd like us to stay".
And I'm half-Italian....
75% or more to stay in Europe
I look forward to my Gelato.
Otherwise hopefully UK can do a deal with China and be rebranded NHK (Neo-Hong-Kong) or become an offshore American colony or ... [lobster wanders off into political la-la land]
I agree with your prediction (but I think it may be an even closer margin). I don't think it necessarily makes sense though. I think many of those on the fence will get cold feet, and won't pull the trigger.
I haven't the foggiest idea! It's interesting that it seems as simple as a vote? is that the case? I know PR has voted in the past to become part of the US but even if they do so that isn't a binding vote and the process is extremely complex. Just as TX and a couple of other states that have claimed they will secede. Is it really just as simple as a majority vote to stay in the EU or not? I find this fascinating, but I know nothing about the UK or its people to hazard a guess. I can't even figure out how my local town will manage the school board.
What does the Italian half of you say?
A lot of Brits feel that way too. The political debate has been very shoddy, lots of scare tactics and dodgy claims.
We have our own version of Trump by the way, Boris Johnson:
Actually, Boris Johnson may come across as a blundering buffoon, but he has talked a lot of sense on several subjects. I wouldn't put him in the same category as Trump by a long chalk...One might dislike the way he presents himself, and how he puts things across, but he makes good points on many aspects of varied subjects.
The Italian side of me is celebrating two Italian Political Victories, which frankly, for a patriarchal society like Italy, are absolutely astoundingly transformational....
That's how it looks to me. The polls have been showing 10-15% of people undecided, and I reckon most of those will vote to remain, because leaving the EU would be a huge leap into the unknown. Better the devil you know.
Bets placed so far:
Spiny: 55% remain
Rohit: 62% leave
Steve_B: 53% leave
Kerome: 54% remain
Lobster: 75% remain
Don't forget the prize!
Put me down for 53% remain
You Brits eat ice cream on plates? I knew you were crazy
That's also way more than a half cup serving.
I'm going to say 58% remain. For no reason whatsoever. I read the CNN low down on the whole Brexit and that's all I have, lol. Of course, despite the potential major impacts, this hasn't been covered in our media hardly at all. Because Trump fired his manager, some celebrity got run over by his car, and someone in Kentucky is building Noah's Ark. Sigh.
"Five Star Movement". Cool!
I'm voting remain, partly because I think the UK will be culturally a better place as part of Europe, less "Little Britain" and less subject to transatlantic influence. I think my dual nationality ( British/Irish ) is a factor here.
It's not been an easy decision though, I can see both sides of the argument.
Bets placed so far:
Spiny: 55% remain
Rohit: 62% leave
Steve_B: 53% leave
Kerome: 54% remain
Lobster: 75% remain
Walker: 53% remain
Karasti: 58% remain
The European Union received the Nobel Peace Prize 2012. How can one possibly want to leave such a distinguished institution?
I’m serious in a way. I believe the world needs a strong and united EU. The flaws of the EU at present are huge, but the idea behind it remains brilliant. Europe is built on the vision of post-war political giants and the absence of popular consultation on their ideas…
There should never be a referendum on the EU. It’s too important. Popular sentiment should not be allowd to jeopardize it.
I sincerely hope that the British remain in the EU and that the European project can move forward.
I optimistically predict a remain of 59%
Just in general, I find I have a hard time with how much influence individuals should and shouldn't have. It's easy to see with, say slavery. Just because it was popular doesn't mean it was right and obviously our elected people who fought it did the right thing to go against popular opinion. But I find it incredibly frustrating when a majority of people are asking for change (say, better gun legislation) and our elected people are catering to the will of gun lobbies instead of the people who elected them. Popular opinion most certainly shouldn't always be the way it goes. But it should sometimes be. Who decides when, how and what issues?
That's the inherent problem when the main goal of legislators is merely to stay in office instead of crafting effective, evidence-based policy that raises well-being. The U.S. in particular is rife with laws and policies that actually make the things they address worse. It's actually stunning.
Policy based on real-world evidence is often highly unpopular amongst the torches and pitchforks of a confused, uninformed public.
Please, no more talk about guns!
LOL sorry @SpinyNorman, it's just the best example right now since we failed to pass 4 more bills
Darling you got to let me know, should I stay or should I go...
I think the UK should stay....
The polls are still very close....it could go either way!
Why? (At least add some logical substance to your thought....)
Because staying in a club with your friends is nice? I mean if brexit can use emotive arguments, can't remain as well? I actually think the whole thing could be grounds for a good comedy...
I think it's a better option....Togetherness "One love"
I'm agreeing with @SpinyNorman (he's got insider information)
The EU immigration row has intensified with reports of an influx of Turkish seagulls into English coastal resorts, thought to be linked to a proliferation of kebab takeaways in seaside towns. "Where will it end?" moaned one English gull, "Next it will be Chinese gulls and Indian gulls, they will all have chicks and there is just no room." We spoke to a Turkish gull called Gallipoli who was lurking near a kebab shop in Clacton, waiting to swoop on unsuspecting customers as they came out with their meal. "Those fat English gulls aren't interested in kebabs and wouldn't be quick enough anyway," explained Gallipoli, "All they do is take chips and ice-cream from tourists, easy pickings, not proper work at all."
I'll go with remain and figure 54% of the vote.
I'm just not a fan of too many borders.
You can't take 54%! I already took it. But 52% and 56% are still free. Otherwise the ice cream lottery won't work anymore, we'd have to split the ice cream if we won and I'm not coming all the way to England to do that.
I could post the prize to the winner, but then it would melt on the way....
Oops, I thought it was free.
I'll take 68% just to play it safe.
Hi, I usually just read the comments but I feel very opinionated on the topic of the EU, even before the referendum was announced.
I am not British and do not have a vote but I am very anti-EU for a wide variety of reasons and hope for the sake of Europe that the British vote out and begin the unravelling of the EU dictatorship.
The EU is run by unelected bureaucrats who only have the interests of big business at heart. They write laws that cannot be voted against or appealed by MEP's. The 7 commissions that decide everything are not elected by the people and it isn't unusual for theses bureaucrats to sneer that they are not accountable to the people of Europe, yet they get to decide the agenda. Corporate lobby groups have huge influence over these people too.
Merkel talks about "EU solidarity", but where was the solidarity with Greece during their debt crisis? Which hasn't gone away you know.
The irony being that Germany are the biggest debt transgressors of the 20th century and thanks to country’s like Greece, UK and France giving them debt forgiveness are the economic powerhouse of Europe today. But there is a debt crisis in Italy with 300 billion euro of bad loans and Deutsche bank are in bad shape too.
If the British voters have any sense they will vote out before they are forced again into contributing to the next "bail out".
The EU was supposed to prevent dictatorship not facilitate it!
Sorry, got carried away there and forgot to give my prediction
I think it will be remain 52% leave 48%.
My reasoning being that the leave campaign scare tactics will work.
I think majority of people from England would vote against EU and little more than 55% people of Scotland would favor EU.
When I first started reading this thread, my knee-jerk thought/reaction was I hope they split - out with the old and in with the new - I nodded to myself, just kept reading. Incidentally, I am the worst with history - my son was a genius with it. I just don't know what's going on most of the time. And thank you, 'new' @Boru for lending your two ce... er I mean tuppence. Yeah, that's it.
62.174% remain
And, for a little musical interlude via John Oliver: "F*ck the European Union" which is arguably less witty than the 1959 Kingston Trio doing, "They're Rioting in Africa." Oh yes ... and Randy Newman's "Political Science."
-If you vote to leave I hope the EU doesn't send red clad gentlemen to occupy you like you did to us :-)